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Prediction for CME (2023-07-04T04:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-04T04:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25808/-1
CME Note: Complex partial halo CME comprised of multiple embedded fronts seen mostly south in SOHO/STEREO A coronagraphs but brightest in STEREO A COR2. The CME appears to contain a wide bulk and a very wide faint shock present in the northeast. Likely associated with an eruption near the vicinity of AR3359 (S22E24) seen best as a spray in SDO 193/171 starting shortly before 03:00Z as well as large-scale brightening in SDO 304 seen near 04:00Z. A broad area of large-scale post-eruptive arcades are seen back towards the northeast after the eruption, particularly in SDO 193. Data gaps due to a STEREO A campaign limits analysis of this event. No clear CME arrivals on July 6-8.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-07T07:09Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Event id="329"
SIDC URSIGRAM 30705
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Jul 2023, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
...
Coronal mass ejections: Solar coronal dimming was observed on July 04,
starting at around 02:12 UTC and ending around 04:09 UTC. The coronal
dimming was located close to the Sunspot region NOAA AR 3359. A partial
halo coronal mass ejection (CME), associated to the dimming, was first
observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 04:12 UTC on July 04. The CME is
directed to the south-east and is estimated to give a glancing blow to
Earth's environment either late on July 06 or early on July 07.

Lead Time: 37.92 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-07-05T17:14Z

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